Reading "On War" by Carl von Clausewitz

Clausewitz said "war is merely the continuation of politics by other means." In other words, political objectives always drive war, and that strategy should coordinate military actions with political goals.

In Ukraine, Russia's actions are shaped by long-term political goals of influence, while Ukraine aligns with Western powers and willing and open to being part of Western Europe and North American sphere of influence.

In the Middle East, conflicts reflect deep political, economic resources, sectarian, ideological, and an apartheid rules and treatment of the Palestinians.

Clausewitz describes war as a dynamic "trinity" that includes emotion (hatred and hostile between peoples), chance (unpredictable nature of war), and reason (strategic calculation by politicians).

Societal emotions and intense nationalism fuel the Ukrainian and Middle East conflicts, while the chaotic battlefield with the new killing technology such as Ai killer drones of all types, land robotics, and hypersonic missiles makes outcomes unpredictable. Reason, or goals, is often obscured by these factors. This trinity can explain the volatility of these wars, making peace negotiations more challenging.

Clausewitz's concept "fog of war" describes the uncertainty and confusion in military operations. Decisions are often made with inaccurate information, which lead to mistakes and unintended consequences.

Both the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts are shaped by social media info warfare, propaganda, and misinformation.

Politicians and commanders make decisions in the middle of uncertainty, which often leads to unintended missteps, making it more difficult to deal with war and a possible peaceful resolution.

Clausewitz saw war as a spectrum, ranging from limited conflicts to "absolute" or total war, where all societal resources and measures are deployed to achieve victory.

Ukraine’s war is a near-total commitment for its survival, while Russia is fluctuating between limited and intense measures. In the Middle East, conflicts range in intensity too, with some Israeli military attacks are absolute brutal total warfare on the Gaza Strip Palestinian people, while Israel and Iran are more limited at the moment.

Clausewitz's concept of the "center of gravity" (CoG), the focal point that holds an enemy forces together. Identifying and targeting an enemy's CoG is critical to achieving victory.

In Ukraine, control over supply chains can be considered CoGs for both Ukraine and Russia because of the amount of distance and transportation of all the armaments. In the Middle East, similar principles apply, where certain strategic locations, underground tunnel networks that Hamas or Hezbollah have built, resources, or communication networks are targeted by the Israeli military and the USA spy satellites, as a way to destabilize Hamas and Hezbollah.

To Clausewitz, he argued that the will to fight can sometimes outweigh all the resources, a nation has at their disposal. If a military or a society does not have the morale or the willpower to sustain the war effort, the society will lose.

Ukraine’s Soldiers and society are tired and they have lost at least 200,000 plus soldiers and missionary soldiers from NATO countries. 

Russia continues to send waves of soldiers and more advanced killing machines and technology. Russia will not lose this conflict and now Europe and USA understand.

The Middle East, an ideological commitment to endure their conflicts is on the brink. Iran will not have the willpower to sustain the carpet bombing of the B52s and the B51s. Morale is thus a key driver that sustains the momentum of these conflicts.

Clausewitz understood that alliances and support from other nations can significantly influence war dynamics, especially in terms of resources, strategy, and political pressure.

Ukraine’s reliance on the USA support, both militarily and politically, has been critical to its resistance.

Due to the oil resources in the Middle East, the US, Israel, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, EU, shape the conflicts through direct or indirect conflict, funding, and diplomatic communication.

Clausewitz warned that decisive victories are rare.

War, limited or total War, is a protracted struggle.

Both the Ukraine conflict and various Middle Eastern wars, we see ongoing stalemates, shifting control, and prolonged suffering without clear resolution.

Clausewitz explained that successful commanders must be adaptable as conditions evolve.

Most societies have no idea how much technology has evolved at the military level. Usually, military technology and killing machines are at least 5 to 10 years ahead of societal knowledge.

Ukrainian forces, have shown flexibility by leveraging both conventional tactics and guerrilla warfare against Russian soldiers.

At the same time Russian military has shown limited and most of the time, empathetic warning of the Ukrainian soldiers that they are in danger if they continue.

In the Middle East, it is purely carpet bombing of a whole society into submission, massive amounts of artificial intelligence killer drone attacks, with satellite precision missile attacks, and absolute destruction of societies. Israeli, American, and UK have shown over the past 30 years they're overwhelming, massive bombing of societies in the Middle East with no remorse toward children, women, elderly by using their attacks in a form of collective punishment of a whole society.

Clausewitz’s work is an amazing framework for analyzing war as a reflection of political, social, emotional, and somewhat economic forces.